Posts Tagged ‘Property Values’
Posted by tblefko on September 29, 2009
Another month – another positive sign! The Standard & Poor‘s/Case-Shiller home price index rose 1.2 percent from June to August which reflects a positive trend for the third month in a row.
Before we all go off the deep end and declare “happy days are here again”, we should probably temper our enthusiasm just a bit. David M. Blitzer, the committee chairman for the Case-Shiller index said, “We do need to be cautious in coming months to assess whether the housing market will weather the expiration of the federal first-time buyer’s tax credit in November, anticipated higher unemployment rates and a possible increase in foreclosures.”
Stay tuned – - -
Posted in Agents, Buyers, Consumers, Market Conditions, Sellers | Tagged: Business, Buyers, Case-Shiller index, David M. Blitzer, Media, Property Values, Real estate, Reports, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Sellers, Standard & Poor, Statistics, Tax credit, U.S. Housing Market, Unemployment, Video | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on September 23, 2009
The term ‘Baby Boomer‘ gets thrown around a lot in the world of advertising. It seems like everyone is trying to sell to this segment of the population; including the real estate industry. Economic statistics show that baby boomers account for 28% of the population, but over 77% of all financial assets in the United States. This generation also accounts for more than 50% of all discretionary authority in private organizations as well as in government. But do REALTORS® and builders really know what baby boomers want in a home? Do they know what features they want? What locations are preferential? How much money they’re willing to spend? A new survey conducted by the MetLife Mature Market Institute and the National Association of Home Builders entitled 55+ Housing: Builders, Buyers and Beyond was just released that sheds some light on these very questions.
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Posted in Agents, Buyers, Construction, Consumers, Motivation, Technology | Tagged: 55+ Housing: Builders, Agents, Baby Boomers, Builders, Buyers and Beyond, Downsizing, Green Building, High-Speed Internet, Media, MetLife Mature Market Institute, National Association of Home Builders, Property Values, Real estate, Reports, Statistics | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on September 4, 2009
The Central Penn Business Journal (CPBJ) just published its Fall “Construction & Real Estate” report. CPBJ claims it’s the beginning of the end after more than a year in recession for Central Pennsylvania. CPBJ focuses on why the construction and real estate industries are key economic indicators and what effect the federal government’s stimulus package has had on the mid-state. You’ll read about companies that got creative to weather the recession and the state of our region’s commercial, residential and rental real estate markets.
Lots of good ‘stuff.’
Posted in Construction, Consumers, Development, Lancaster, Market Conditions | Tagged: Agents, Buyers, Predictions, Property Values, Reports, Statistics | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on August 15, 2009
Image courtesy of Flickr
I remember a couple of years ago when Zillow first hit the real estate scene. Consumers embraced the web site almost immediately because of the web site’s cool, on-line tools. One tool in particular caught their fancy: the Zestimate. This single, funny-sounding word would grow to strike fear in the heart’s of REALTORS® everywhere.
But what is a Zestimate? A Zestimate is an estimated market value of a home based on Zillow’s proprietary, mathematical formula. The home data they compile to generate a Zestimate home valuation varies by location. Some geographic areas provide all the data Zillow could hope for, but others are lacking such key things as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, or, in some cases, the square footage of the home. The theory says that the more data Zillow has, the more accurate the Zestimate. They even made it easy for users of the site to help them improve accuracy by incorporating edited home facts into their Zestimate calculations. In some areas, Zillow can’t produce a Zestimate at all, but they do have some basic information on the homes.
Why did REALTORS® dispise Zillow? Because they claimed that the tool that produced Zestimates oversimplified the valuation process and gave inaccurate results. Regardless, Zillow shot up the popularity charts and in no time at all it was firmly entrenched as one of the top ten real estate web sites in the world. REALTORS® looked at the new kid on the block as a threat to their own personal fiefdom as experts on property valuation. They exclaimed, “How dare they hand out FREE property estimates! They’re misleading consumers. Why can’t consumers see that the accuracy of Zestimates is atrocious?”
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Posted in Agents, Lancaster, Market Conditions, Sellers | Tagged: Agents, Charts, Lancaster County, National Association of REALTORS, Property Values, Sellers, Statistics, Video, Zestimates, Zillow.com | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on July 28, 2009
Image courtesy of Flickr
Like it or not, one of the most pessimistic (some would argue realistic) housing economists of our generation, Robert Shiller, will probably always be associated with the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression. He was one of the first outspoken people to warn us of an impending ’housing bubble’ as far back as 2003. At that time, most economists scoffed at his assertions and at his newly created S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index. He was like that single, stray cloud that blocked your personal sun on the beach on an otherwise beautiful day. Annoying, but if you waited long enough, it would pass and the sun would return. One small problem - Shiller’s cloud grew into a full-fledged thunderstorm that very few people saw coming.
His S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index has been quoted far and wide as the definitive read on the housing market. For months, it hasn’t been a rosy picture, but today that sun returned to the beach. For the first time in three years, his index showed an increase in nationwide housing prices of .5% for the month of May.
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Posted in Market Conditions | Tagged: Great Depression, Karl Case, National Association of REALTORS, Property Values, Reports, Robert Shiller, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Statistics, U.S. Housing Market, United States Department of Commerce | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on July 27, 2009
Everyone and their brother has an opinion or theory on how the country got into this economic situation. Some people blame Wall Street, the financial institutions and banks; other people take direct aim at REALTORS®, builders and mortgage companies; still others impugn the American consumer and their fixation with obtaining easy money with no strings attached.
I found this short video enlightening, insightful and explains the economic predicament about as well as any that I have read, heard or seen.
Posted in Financing, Legislation, Market Conditions | Tagged: Bailout, Financial institution, Foreclosures, Media, Obama, Property Values, Regulators, Statistics, Stimulus Package, Stocks, U.S. Housing Market, Video, Wall Street | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on July 15, 2009
In a story that appeared in the Intelligencer Journal/Lancaster New Era today, the Lancaster City Council Finance Committee touted the city’s recent positive trends in real estate activity and growth:
Despite a significant decline in the real estate market nationally, the city saw only a 0.5 percent drop in real estate transfer taxes last year. That shows a strong interest in living in the city.
And, the transfer tax decrease comes from comparing 2008 to the previous three-year average. Those three comparison years, 2005-2007, happened to be the city’s best three years ever.
And the city experienced a 10-year high in the number of building permits issued, with $115 million in new construction activity in 2008. That level of investment is the third highest in city history, behind only 2006 and 2007.
New businesses are opening downtown, redevelopment is continuing in the northwestern quadrant of the city and the new Lancaster County Convention Center and Marriott Lancaster at Penn Square Hotel recently opened. ¹
This is great news and should be shared with all Lancastrians - – - so why did it appear on page B4 buried at the bottom of the page? The front page of the newspaper ran the following four stories:
- Jurors Hear 911 Call – Story about a local murder trial (negative slant).
- Good Man Who Got Greedy is Jailed – Story about a banker who swindled friends and customers (negative slant).
- Fumo Gets 55 Months in Prison – Story about sentencing of Pennsylvania lawmaker for corruption (negative slant).
- Welcome Back , Potter – Frivolous piece about the latest installment of J.K. Rowlings’s newest movie (fluffy slant).
Surely the powers that control which stories that are run on page one of the Intell/NE could have found a small corner of the front page to trumpet the accomplishments of its own city? I guess that’s the reason why I’m not working at LNP as a newspaper editor.
—————-
¹ Harris, Bernard. “City Audit Shows Positives and Negatives.” Intelligencer Journal/Lancaster New Era [Lancaster, PA] 15 July 2009, Metro Edition, Local Section : B4.
Posted in Lancaster, Market Conditions | Tagged: Media, Newspapers, Property Values, Reports, Statistics | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on July 12, 2009
Image courtesy of Flickr
The real estate industry has been operating under the new HVCC guidelines for a couple of weeks now and we are beginning to see the ugly results of this misguided set of government regulations. In a preliminary report issued this past week by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), it finds that the HVCC is having an adverse impact on housing markets.
Before I get into the actual results, let me spend a minute and tell you about what this new set of guidelines was supposed to do.
The HVCC was intended to promote independence in the appraisal process and, thus, help ensure that appraisers and the appraisal process may be relied upon as part of sound underwriting for financial institutions. What that actually means is that the loan officer who is working on your loan no longer orders the appraisal on your home. It is done through the lender who either has an in-house process for appraisal management issues or, more often, it is done through something called an Appraisal Management Company (AMC).
While this may not seem like a big change to you if you are buying a home, it can possibly be a much bigger change than you might think. Prior to May 1, loan officers, REALTORS® and appraisers all communicated as needed regarding your home and home financing and it wasn’t uncommon for everyone to be on the same conference call if needed. But now that the HVCC rules are in place, the only way the loan officer or REALTOR® will know who the appraiser is is if by chance the appraiser calls them. In other words, no one talks to anyone to clarify anything!
Now, on to the findings of NAR’s analysis:
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Posted in Agents, Buyers, Financing, Legislation, Sellers | Tagged: Agents, Appraisal, Appraiser, Buyers, Financing, HVCC, National Association of REALTORS, Property Values, Reports, Sellers, Statistics | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on July 10, 2009
The gap between the 2008 and 2009 real estate markets in Lancaster County is down to a razor’s edge. On Wednesday of this week, the front page of the Intelligencer Journal ran the following story:
Market Here For Housing Gets Better ¹
Numbers for pending home sales improve
The housing market in Lancaster County continued to rebound in May, creeping ever closer to 2008′s level, local Realtors reported Tuesday.
The number of pending home sales here was down only 2.5 percent from the May 2008 figure, the smallest gap so far this year, according to the Lancaster County Association of Realtors.
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Posted in Lancaster, Market Conditions | Tagged: Agents, Buyers, Financing, Intelligencer Journal, Lancaster County, Lancaster County Association of REALTORS, Mortgage, National Association of REALTORS, Newspapers, Property Values, Statistics, U.S. Housing Market | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on July 1, 2009
Photo courtesy of Flickr
In a report released today by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), the Pending Home Sales Index advanced for a fourth month in a row. Granted, the increase was only 0.1% from April to May, but it was still good news. In addition, the index continued a four month positive trend which is the first time that has happened in nearly five years. On an even brighter note, the index rose a whopping 6.7% when you compare it to May of last year.
We do need to temper our enthusiasm; however, because a rise in sales contracts may not yield a like increase in completed sales. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said, “Closed existing-home sales have improved but are coming in lower than expected because some contracts are delayed or falling through from the application of new appraisal rules for many transactions.”
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Posted in Buyers, Financing, Market Conditions, Sellers | Tagged: Appraisals, Financing, Foreclosures, Housing Affordability Index, Lawrence Yun, National Association of REALTORS, Pending Home Sales Index, Property Values | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on June 9, 2009
Image courtesy of Flickr
I consider myself a ‘casual’ baseball fan. I watch a couple of games a year on TV and maybe take in a minor league game every once in awhile. While most guys attend games to watch balls fly out of the ballpark (“Chicks dig the long ball!”), I’m more cerebral and love a good pitcher’s duel. There is nothing like watching a pitcher that has total control over his pitches as he nibbles at the corners of the strike zone trying to get a batter to swing at a bad pitch, or if they make contact, will weakly dribble it into an infielder’s glove for an easy out at first base. However, there is a fine line between nibbling at the corners and just throwing a pitch away. It’s hard to define, but you know it when you see it. The same applies to submitting an offer on a listing. There are some offers that cause the seller to take a good hard look at (and occasionally take a swing at) while there are others that are real head-scratchers. As in baseball, the low-ball offer that is a waste of everyone’s time is hard to define, but I know it when I see it.
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Posted in Agents, Buyers, Market Conditions, Sellers | Tagged: Agents, Buyers, Negotiating, Offer, Property Values, Sellers | 1 Comment »
Posted by tblefko on May 11, 2009
Image courtesy of Flickr
The typical homeowner wants to get the most money for their home when it comes time to sell. That’s just human nature. So the natural inclination is for them to price their home for sale above their home’s true market value so as not to leave any money on the table. Seems like a wise move on the seller’s part; however, this strategy is loaded with pitfalls that will actually lead to less greenbacks in their back pocket.
Keep in mind that the seller of real estate does not determine what it actually sells for – - – buyers do (see my previous post). So with that in mind, let me review the dangers associated with overpricing a home when it is put on the market for sale.
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Posted in Agents, Financing, Sellers | Tagged: Agents, Financing, Property Values, Sellers | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on May 4, 2009
Image courtesy of Flickr
Let’s start with a basic premise when it comes to the value of your home; “A home is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.” Sounds simple, doesn’t it? Let me restate this premise a different way; “Your home’s value is not determined by a website, the assessment office, an appraiser, your Uncle Charlie (you know – the one that knows a little bit about everything), a neighbor, the gal that sits in the next cubicle at work, your REALTOR® or (now sit down and take a deep breath) YOU!”. If you don’t truly believe this basic premise than stop reading because the rest of this post will annoy you. Good – - – I’m glad you’re still with me.
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Posted in Agents, Buyers, Sellers | Tagged: Agents, Buyers, Property Values, Sellers | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on May 3, 2009
Image courtesy of Flickr
If you take a moment and peer up into the sky you will actually see that we are at the crossroads of a real estate buying opportunity like we haven’t seen in my lifetime. All the factors that go into making a real estate buying decision are perfectly configured. But like most perfect planetary alignments, clouds and precipitation sometime make it difficult to see this truly amazing sight and before you know it, the moment has passed. The four planets that I see aligning are as follows:
1. Mortgage Financing - If you’re like most people, you will need a mortgage to assist you in purchasing a home. Interest rates right now are the lowest that they have been in decades (see ‘Mortgage Info’ tab). When I first got into the real estate business over twenty-five years ago, the 30 year fixed rate was about 17% (this is not a misprint). To put that in easier terms to understand, a principal and interest payment on a $150,000 mortgage then was $2,138 – - – now $805. Hopefully, President Obama’s programs and endeavors will start to have some positive effects on the economic growth in this country. When that happens and consumer spending starts to pick up, what do you think will happen to interest rates? I was not an Economics major in college, but even I can figure out that rates will tick up because of inflationary fears. So if you have good credit, money to work with and an income that can be verified, there has never been a better time to get a mortgage.
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Posted in Buyers, Financing, Lancaster, Market Conditions, Sellers | Tagged: Buyers, FICO Score, Financing, Lancaster County, National Association of REALTORS, Obama, Property Values, Sellers, Statistics | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on April 18, 2009
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Most of our elected government officials right now are scrambling around trying to fix Humpty-Dumpty because he fell off the “Housing” wall and is supposedly shattered in a thousand pieces. All the kings horses and all the kings men are trying to put the pieces back together again. But what if Humpty-Dumpty doesn’t need fixing? What if all he has is a bad cold that will run its course regardless of the medicine that is administered? Essentially, that is what
Todd Zywicki, a law professor at George Mason University, is saying. Zywicki has done extensive research on the subject of bankruptcy and foreclosure and has appeared before Congress as an expert witness to testify on the subject.
In a recent
article* that appeared on Forbes.com, Zywicki takes serious umbrage with the way President Obama and his administration is handling the housing situation in this country. Obama has recently referred to the housing situation as a “crisis” that is “unraveling home ownership, the middle class and the American Dream itself.” Zywicki’s assertion is that this just isn’t the case. Before you unload on me and say that I’m just another conservative (I am) Republican (I am) wack-job (questionable) trying to drag down our country and the Democrats, consider this – - – I voted for him.
Zywicki’s research indicates that different parts of the country experience different sets of problems when it comes to real estate. In other words, one size doesn’t fit all which is essentially what he argues the Obama Administration is trying to do with its housing policy. Zywicki points to three distinct types of housing markets that exist today:
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Posted in Financing, Lancaster, Market Conditions | Tagged: Financing, Foreclosures, Lancaster County, Obama, Property Values, Statistics, Web Sites | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on April 6, 2009
Inman News, a leading source of independent real estate news, information and commentary, just published findings from an online survey* they conducted recently. The results indicate that three out of four respondents believe that the housing market in their area is improving or stabilizing and most say they have noticed the change within the last two months.
Of those that felt the market was improving, 70.6% cited ‘low interest rates’ as the number one reason for the improvement. Interest rates on conforming, conventional mortgages are at, or near, fifty year lows as shown on my Mortgage Info page. Following close behind this reason was ‘affordable prices’ at 67.8% and ‘good deals’ at 57.1%. (NOTE: Respondents were asked to cite all reasons that apply so totals add up to more than 100%.)
The survey also tried to gauge the attitudes of buyers and sellers. On the homebuyer side of the equation, agents are finding that 74.7% are still very ‘cautious’ when it comes to moving forward with purchasing a home. This percentage is extremely high and shows that purchasers are still in a wait and see mode when it comes to the market. More than likely, they are going to want to see some more positive news out of the financial markets and continued stabilization of interest rates for them to get off the fence.
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Posted in Agents, Buyers, Market Conditions, Sellers | Tagged: Agents, Buyers, Lancaster County, Property Values, Reports, Sellers, Statistics | 1 Comment »
Posted by tblefko on March 25, 2009
In a news release published today by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), they find that house prices across the U.S. ticked up 1.7% between December 2008 and January 2009. The FHFA monthly index is calculated using purchase prices of houses backing mortgages that have been sold to or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. For the nine Census Divisions, seasonally adjusted monthly price changes from December to January ranged from -.9% in the Pacific Division to +3.9% in the East North Central Division. Pennsylvania is located in the Middle Atlantic division which showed prices moving up 1.5%.
As indicated in a recent post (The Distant Drums), there are signs of some positive things happening in the real estate industry. In Lancaster County, sales jumped 10% from January ’09 to February ’09. In addition, interest rates dipped below 5% for thirty year fixed rate mortgages this past week. Does this mean we’re out of the woods? Probably not. But we’re certainly moving in the right direction. I anticipate over the next couple of months we’ll be hit with some mixed signals. To borrow a metaphor used quite often during March Madness, a team is usually not as bad as a fifteen point loss indicates and not as good as a fifteen point win would suggest. The key to thriving in the real estate game is to remain calm and think clearly while all around are losing their heads.
Posted in Lancaster, Market Conditions | Tagged: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Lancaster County, Property Values, Statistics | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on March 24, 2009
I’m starting to hear the distant drumbeat. Do you hear it? Not yet? Stay quiet for just a second longer. There!!! You had to have heard it that time. It’s the sound of the real estate market coming back to life. Over the last thirty days there have been tiny rays of sunshine peeking through the storm clouds. Here’s one of those rays – - -
Posted in Agents, Buyers, Market Conditions, Sellers | Tagged: Buyers, Interest Rates, National Association of REALTORS, Predictions, Property Values, Sellers, Video | Leave a Comment »
Posted by tblefko on March 14, 2009
Image courtesy of Flickr
Before I even begin to talk about short sales, a word of warning; these transactions are extremely complicated and time-consuming. No homeowner should try to do one without the help of a good real estate attorney and an experienced REALTOR®. To do otherwise, would be like walking a tightrope without a net – - – you may get to your destination but one small misstep and you’ll end up flattened like a pancake.
Let’s start with a definition: A short sale occurs when the price that can be obtained for a home when it is sold is less than what is remaining on the mortgage which will cause the lender to be “shorted” what they are due. Usually the events that lead up to the need to consider a short sale are:
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Posted in Agents, Buyers, Financing, Market Conditions, Sellers | Tagged: Buyers, Financing, Foreclosures, Property Values, Sellers, Short Sale | 2 Comments »
Posted by tblefko on March 2, 2009
Image Courtesy of Flickr
Let’s here it for Lancaster County! We’re taking names and kickin’ some butt. YaaaHooo!
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) just released their “All-Transactions Home-Price Index” which compares the fourth quarter of 2007 with the fourth quarter of 2008 and it shows that Lancaster County, Pennsylvania is faring better than most other real estate markets nationally. While the national appreciation rate dropped 4.5% for that period, Lancaster showed an increase of 1.6%. Their study is based upon purchase prices and refinancing appraisal amounts for the last quarter.
Before I get too caught up in myself, let’s take a step back and look at national home price surveys in general. It seems like every every government agency, financial institution, REALTOR® organization and corner coffeehouse has their own version of what real estate prices are doing. Let’s face it, if you crunch the numbers long enough and add a touch of this and a pinch of that, you can make statistics back-up anything you’re selling. In fact, my analysis of the the local data supplied by the Keystone MLS for the month of December actually showed Lancaster County’s prices taking a dip. But that’s not the point. Regardless of what formula or methodology is utilized by any of these entities, they are all basically showing the same thing: when you compare Lancaster County versus other areas of the state and country, we’re more than holding our own.
So the next time you hear a news report or read a newspaper about how home prices in Las Vegas are plummeting by the hour; remember, the old adage definitely applies, “All real estate is local.”
Posted in Lancaster, Market Conditions | Tagged: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Lancaster County, Property Values, Reports, Statistics | Leave a Comment »
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